A revised morphing algorithm for creating future weather for building performance evaluation

Abstract

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges the building industry faces. Engineers and architects require representative future weather data if they would like to see how their buildings and designs will fare under a changing climate. The most common method used to create future weather involves manipulating observations commonly known as morphing, but the most used algorithms can create implausible weather conditions due to their unbounded nature. Here, bounded morphing algorithms will be described and their effectiveness proved mathematically. The improved bounded method applies two additional conditions on the morphed distribution to the maximum and minimum values, in addition to the mean values. The benefits over the standard approach will also be illustrated considering the changes in the distribution of temperature and solar irradiation due to climate change. The improved algorithms outperform the standard morphing procedures in terms of preserving the underlying climate signal while not creating unrealistic or implausible weather conditions. This method should give engineers confidence that the generated future weather series are more robust and representative of potential future weather. Practical application: The use of future weather to inform building design is now commonplace within the industry. Reliable weather files are crucial to support and deliver strategies for decarbonisation and adaptation to climate change in the built environment and the wider industry. This article provides support for the use of revised morphing algorithms which result in improved future weather time series which can be used in building simulation. For example, when applied to the temperature, it can be used to produce more accurate representations of future temperature profiles due to climate change, and for building performance assessment, such as energy consumption and overheating. It plays an important role in producing reliable and realistic weather data for future-proof building design.