The emerging threat environment and the impact on nuclear preparedness

Abstract

The emerging threat environment is dominated by several critical factors that will have significant consequences on the global security environment along with commensurate impacts on nuclear preparedness. The combination of dissolution of nation states into culturally and ethnically aligned entities, the reduction of military presence in the Middle East resulting from the withdrawal of troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, the likelihood of Iran becoming a nuclear weapon state and the recent Russian aggression in Crimea and Ukraine give rise to a geopolitical and associated threat environment that is unprecedented in recent history. This paper explores these factors and identifies some the potential security impacts as well as the likely consequences or challenges to nuclear security and preparedness. Lastly, proposed next steps for the U.S. and NATO/Europe are provided as a means to initiate a dialogue to protect against and mitigate the effects generated by these global factors.