The Medium to Long-Term Role of Renewable Energy Sources in Climate Change Mitigation in Portugal

Abstract

Portuguese policy-makers have adopted ambitious targets for RES promotion until 2020, but there are no national targets for the medium to long -term (2050) and it is not clear to what extent which RES can contribute to CC mitigation. This paper aims to assess the contribution of RES for the CC mitigation in Portugal until 2050, under cost-effectiveness criteria. The TIMES_PT linear optimization bottom-up technology model was used to generate six scenarios to 2050 combining GHG emission caps, levels of socio-economic growth and share of RES electricity. In order to meet the 2050 energy demand, the share of RES in primary energy consumption increases 4 to 6 times from 2005 and in final energy grows from 15% in 2005 to 56-59% in 2050. RES were found to be cost-effective even without a GHG cap. Regarding CC mitigation the high RES shares in final energy correspond to less 49-74% GHG emissions in 2050 compared to a baseline without cap. The role of renewable electricity is determinant to mitigate CC especially due to hydro and onshore wind. Other important deployments of RES technologies are solar water heating and heat pumps in buildings, biomass use for process heat in industry and biodiesel in transport. Keywords: