Asset Location, Timing Ability and the Cross-Section of Commercial Real Estate Returns

Abstract

This study examines the sensitivity of equity REIT returns to time-varying MSA allocations of REIT property portfolios. Using a large sample of individual commercial property holdings, we find significant cross-sectional and time variation in REIT geographic exposures and the ability of these exposures to explain the cross-section of REIT returns. We further find evidence consistent with REIT managers being able, on average, to time allocation decisions ahead of MSA outperformance. This effect is most prevalent in non-gateway markets, varies significantly across MSAs and over time, and is concentrated in financially flexible firms with a more diversified geographic portfolio.