Natural Variability and Warming Signals in Global Ocean Wave Climates

Abstract

This paper presents a multivariate classification of the global wave climate into types driven by atmospheric circulation patterns. The primary source of the net long-term variability is evaluated based on historical wave simulations. Results show that the monsoon, extratropical, subtropical, and polar wave climate types of the Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans are dominated by natural variability, whereas the extratropical and subtropical wave climate types in the Indian Ocean, and the tropical wave climate types of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans exhibit a global warming signal. In the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean, strong natural variability may mask a global warming signal that is yet to emerge as being statistically significant. In addition, wave climate teleconnections were found across the world that can provide a framework for joint strategies to achieve the goals of climate adaption for resilient coastal communities and environments.