Forecasting of convective precipitation through NWP models and algorithm of storms prediction

Abstract

This article focuses on contemporary possibilities of forecasting of convective storms which may cause flash floods. The first chapters are presented predictive tools such as numerical weather prediction models (NWP models) and the algorithm of convective storms prediction, which includes a storm prediction based on the principles of mathematical statistics, probability theory and artificial intelligence methods. Discussion section provides outputs from the success rate of these forecasting tools on the historical weather situation for the year 2016. The Algorithm’s output may be useful for early warning of population and notification of crisis management authorities before a potential threat of flash floods in the Zlin Region.