The Nigerian federation at the crossroads: The way forward

Abstract

This article reviews the first fifty years of federal experience in Nigeria. It distinguishes three phases: an apprenticeship to "true" federalism phase (1954-1965), a federal dominance phase under military rule (1966-1979 and 1984-1999), and a "muddling-through" phase under civilian rule (1979-1983 and 1999 to date). The first phase was characterized by political devolution and intergovernmental competition, during which regional governments recorded tangible results. During the second phase, successive military regimes imposed centralism and federal dominance that kept Nigeria united but arrested progress toward consolidating federal democracy. Civilian administrations under the third phase have sought to run the federation in a muddling-through fashion, including serious political and social tensions, modest economic performance, and deepening poverty. Currently, therefore, the Nigerian federation is at a crossroads and has two options: devolution or death.