Demographic Transition and Firm Performance: An Empirical Analysis for Germany

Abstract

Germany is expected to decline in terms of population in the next few decades. In the transition period, the working-age population will shrink faster than the share of pensioners. This phenomena, the “demographic change”, puts pressure on the welfare system and therefore, strategies are requested to face the demographic process. Strategies discussed in the political and scientific debate are the exhausting of the labor force that is available, e.g. employment of females and older workers, and immigration. We consider these channels and its impact on firm productivity using comprehensive German firm-level data. Our evidence suggests that such channels are not harmful for the firm but there is also no strong positive relationship. Thus, at least the channels considered may contribute to the reduction of the burden of the demographic transition.