Using Google Dengue Trends to Estimate Climate Effects in Mexico

Abstract

The incidence of dengue fever (DF) has increased 30 fold between 1960 and 2011. The literature suggests that temperature plays a major role in the life cycle of the mosquito vector and in turn, the timing of DF outbreaks. We use real-time data from GDT and real-time temperature estimates from NASA Earth observing systems to examine the relationship between dengue and climate in 17 Mexican states from 2003-2011. For the majority of states, we predict that a warming climate will increase the number of days the minimum temperature is within the risk range for dengue.