Dynamic Life Cycle Assessment - Parameters for scenario development in prospective environmental modelling of building stocks

Abstract

The global climate crisis calls for the urgent decrease of life cycle environmental impacts of building stocks. However, due to the long life spans of buildings, the complexity of prospective environmental modelling increases, compounded by uncertainty. While dynamic life cycle assessment (DLCA) is able to incorporate temporal variations of parameters (e.g. energy mix) or processes (e.g. technological improvement), their modelling methods have not yet been systematically analysed. This review paper aims to identify the typical dynamic parameters applied in building stock modelling, and advance the understanding of methods for predicting the associated temporal evolutions. We searched for publications on Science Direct database and collected 102 papers. A representative sample of 12 papers was then selected and analysed in detail. The results include 8 typical dynamic parameters and 5 methods for predicting the evolutions. We discuss the limitations of each parameter and formulate some recommendations. Presented research may help produce standardised evolution scenarios which, in turn, will help quantify the environmental impacts of building stocks in a more consistent manner, and inform design decisions that yield improved life cycle performance.