Technology and behavior

Abstract

Different policy strategies may be used to decrease the adverse environmental effects of motorized transport. Technical innovations, such as catalytic converters, engine efficiency improvements, or low-noise road surfaces, may lower the emissions, energy use, or noise production caused by passenger transport. Behavioral measures, on the other hand, aim to change environmentally relevant decisions and behaviors of transport consumers, such as the type choice when purchasing a car, the transport mode choice, or the driving speed. Despite obvious complexities in predicting the effects of such policy measures, assessments of the environmental potential are available for a variety of improvement options and impact categories. For instance, Bouwman & Moll (2000) and Moomaw & Moreira (2001) review the energy use reduction potential of various, mainly technical improvement options in passenger transport. Cavalini, Hendrickx & Rooijers (1995, 1996) estimate the energy use and CO2 emission reduction potential of several behavioral policy measures. Dings (1996) and Nijland (1997) review the emission and noise reduction potential of various (mainly technical) measures. Such assessments are usually based on ceteris paribus assumptions regarding other relevant factors. When assessing the effects of technical innovations, behavioral variables (e.g. total transport demand) are assumed to be constant or to follow some predefined autonomous trend. In other words, technology (T) and behavior (B) are considered as independent. However, in reality technology and behavior often interact. For instance, vehicle or infrastructural innovations aimed at increasing the efficiency of the transport system may also (inadvertently) affect environmentally relevant behaviors (T B interaction). Or, vice versa, policy campaigns aimed at changing the behavior of transport consumers may also influence key decisions of technology designers or producers (B T interaction). This chapter focuses on the first type of interaction (T B). We present a conceptual model that enables us to systematically identify and analyze possible T B interactions. We use the model to analyze three environmentally relevant decisions and behaviors of transport consumers: (a) type choice when purchasing a car; (b) transport mode choice; and (c) speed choice. On the basis of recent research on the determinants of these behaviors, we analyze how these determinants may be affected by technological innovations, and we assess how this would affect the environmental impact of the innovation. The chapter ends with general conclusions and an outline of a research agenda based on our approach. © 2006 Springer.