Simulation modeling for predicting the formation of municipal waste

Abstract

The study was carried out to evaluate the amount and composition of SMW and to determine the potential for waste treatment. The simulation model that underlies the information subsystem of management support for solid municipal waste management has been developed. The system dynamics model was used to estimate the average annual amount of SMW. Simulation was performed using the AnyLogic 7 environment. To analyze the sensitivity of the model, it is necessary to consider the main factors of influence: population, waste components. For developing a simulation model, regression equations were used: the dynamics of population change, the dynamics of changes in the generated waste, the dynamics of changes in the volume of housing stock, the dynamics of changes indicators of retail trade and public catering, the dynamics of changes industrial production, the dynamics of changes household income. The used amount depends on the produced and recycled wastes, while the com-pacted density is constant. This means that if the amount of collected wastes increases as a result of population decline, the volume of use will increase. The model allows to carry out the forecast of volumes of the generated waste for decision-making in system of regional management.