Climate Change Implications in Aviation and Tourism Market Equilibrium

Abstract

A significant proportion of capacity within the European air transport system is taken up by demand for leisure flying and it is particularly associated with summer holidays. Forecasts suggest that climate change has the potential to have a major impact upon levels and patterns of demand for leisure flying as seasons change, as some traditional locations become less attractive and as new markets emerge, either at different times of the year or in new geographical regions. This paper deals with the key challenges and issues for the aviation and tourism sectors towards a climate change adaptation strategy for attractive tourist destinations. Through a top-down analysis, the variables of climate change that impact on the supply and demand equilibrium for tourism and aviation are defined, and based on a gap analysis framework, the relationship of these variables to the aviation and tourism equilibrium is given. Conventional wisdom is to provide key messages to aviation authorities, decision makers and stakeholders regarding the expected changes in demand, the implications in airport operation and the effects in regional economic development, especially, for regions that are highly reliant upon income from tourism. The application includes the aviation and tourism in Greece, which is a very attractive tourist destination in southeast Mediterranean, highlighting the diverse impacts of a changing climate on aviation and tourism, that expected to have significant implications for air traffic flows and the economies across Europe.