Geographic distribution model for Mabuya agmosticha (Squamata: Scincidae) in northeastern Brazil

Abstract

The Neotropical lizard Mabuya agmosticha Rodrigues, 2000 is a habitat-specialist of thorny bromeliads in rocky outcrops of northeastern Brazil. Its distribution in the Caatinga Domain is most likely relictual. In recent years, new surveys conducted in northeastern Brazil have revealed new records of the species in the Caatinga and also in the Atlantic Forest Domain. In this study, we add four new records for M. agmosticha, extending its known geographic range in the states of Rio Grande do Norte and Paraíba. In addition, we investigated the potential geographical distribution of the species using ecological niche modeling (ENM), which combines the available occurrence records with environmental variables. Our model revealed a continuous range of areas with suitable climatic conditions for the species, from the state of Rio Grande do Norte to the northeast portion of the state of Bahia, plus some relictual distribution spots, mainly in the states of Bahia, Pernambuco, Ceará and western Rio Grande do Norte. Based on the model, we suggest that the distribution of M. agmosticha is continuous on a large geographic scale. On a smaller spatial scale, however, it is clear that its distribution is clumped, reflecting its specialist habits associated with rupicolous bromeliads.