Study on Growth Monitoring and Yield Prediction of Winter Wheat in the South of Shanxi Province Based on MERSI Data and ALMANAC Crop Model

Abstract

Accurate crop growth monitoring and yield forecasting have important implications for food security and agricultural macro-control. Crop simulation and satellite remote sensing have their own advantages, combining the two can improve the real-time mechanism and accuracy of agricultural monitoring and evaluation. The research is based on the MERSI data carried by China’s new generation Fengyun-3 meteorological satellite, combined with the US ALMANAC crop model, established the NDVI-LAI model and realized the acquisition of LAI data from point to surface. Because of the principle of the relationship between the morphological changes of LAI curve and the growth of crops, an index that can be used to determine the growth of crops is established to realize real-time, dynamic and wide-scale monitoring of winter wheat growth. At the same time, the index was used to select the different key growth stages of winter wheat for yield estimation. The results showed that the relative error of total yield during the filling period was low, nearly 5%. The research results show that the combination of domestic meteorological satellite Fengyun-3 and ALMANAC crop model for crop growth monitoring and yield estimation is feasible, and further expands the application range of domestic satellites.