Ordinary Kriging and Spatial Autocorrelation Identification to Predict Peak Ground Acceleration in Banda Aceh City, Indonesia

Abstract

Peak ground acceleration (PGA) is a measure of earthquake acceleration in the ground. The prediction information about PGA is important to minimize the effect of earthquake. The method for prediction is Ordinary Kriging. It is geostatistic method used to predict data in certain locations which have autocorrelation. The sample data used in this research are PGA in Meuraxa, Banda Aceh 2006. The steps of research methodology consist of autocorrelations identify by Moran’s I and LISA, build semivariograms, and prediction by Ordinary Kriging. The results is Ordinary Kriging can be applied to predict PGA. It was shown by evaluate of mean and MSE value. According to mean value of three prediction, all models (Gaussian, Spherical, and Exponential) have mean 0,3534; 0,3584; and 0,3555 which approaches the actual PGA mean 0.34. According to MSE value, it can be seen that all models have small MSE or relatively closed to zero.