Jute production in Bangladesh: A time series analysis

Abstract

Jute is called the Golden Fiber of Bangladesh. Bangladesh is currently the second largest producer of jute fiber. Bangladesh falls behind its other competitors in applying recent technological advancements. In terms of world export of jute fiber, Bangladesh's share is more than 70%, which makes Bangladesh the largest exporter of jute fiber in the world. The global demand for jute and allied products has seen a steady increase driven by a fresh comeback for biodegradable fiber as people now look for eco-friendly products replacing synthetics. The main purpose of this research is to identify the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model that could be used to forecast the production of jute in Bangladesh. This study considered the published secondary data of yearly jute production in Bangladesh over the period 1972 to 2013. The best selected Box-Jenkin's ARIMA model for forecasting the jute productions in Bangladesh is ARIMA(1,1,1). The comparison between the original series and forecasted series shows the same manner which indicate the fitted model behaved statistically well and suitable to forecast the jute productions in Bangladesh i.e., the models forecast well during and beyond the estimation period.