Determinants of Variation in Human Development Index Before and After the Financial Crisis: A Bayesian Analysis for Panel Data Model

Abstract

The research results provided a new direction through the design of a Bayesian model with a panel dataset collected from 2006 to 2018. The study was modeled into two periods: Pre- and Post-Financial Crisis 2007–2008. Classification of Countries depended on the level of HDI. In the pre- and post-financial crisis 2007–2008, the positive effect of economic growth seemingly predominated. The positive effect of FDI exceeded its negative effect over the 2006–2011 period. After the financial crisis, the negative effect of FDI was found. Besides, the evidence of the return of trade protectionism was strengthened. Groups of countries with medium and very high HDI witnessed negative effects of Unemployment rate on HDI over both periods.