Estimation of temperature-dependent growth profiles for the assessment of time of hatching in forensic entomology

Abstract

Forensic entomology contributes important information to criminal investigations. This paper proposes a novel method to estimate the hatching time of fly larvae based on the temperature profile at the crime scene and on experimental data on larval development, where larvae are exposed to a constant temperature. We develop a dynamic model to estimate the growth curve under time-varying temperature profiles and the corresponding hatching time at the crime scene. Asymptotic properties are provided for the proposed estimators, and we explore their robustness via simulations. The proposed methodology is demonstrated on data from two criminal cases from the UK.