Crop Response to Climate: Ecophysiological Models

Abstract

To predict the possible impacts of global warming and increased CO2 on agriculture, scientists use computer-based models that attempt to quantify the best-available knowledge on plant physiology, agronomy, soil science and meteorology in order to predict how a plant will grow under specific environmental conditions. The chapter reviews the basic features of crop models with emphasis on physiological responses to temperature and CO2 and explains how models are used to predict potential impacts of climate change, including options for adaptation. The closing section reviews major issues affecting the reliability of model-based predictions. These include the need for accurate inputs, the challenges of improving the underlying physiological knowledge, and the need to improve representations of genetic variation that likely will affect adaptation to climate change.