Response of runoff to climate change

Abstract

Rising global temperatures have accelerated the water cycle, causing a redistribution of water resources that ranges from minor to extreme, arid areas are especially affected by this process due to the fragile nature of their eco-hydrology, which is more sensitive to climatic changes. The main effects of climate change to runoff are as follows: (1) The runoff in North Xinjiang has a strong positive relationship with precipitation, while that in the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains, the middle section of the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the Shule River has a strong positive relationship with air temperature; and there is a positive significant relation between summer runoff and 0∈°C level height (FLH). (2) Human activities are presently the main driving forces behind runoff changes. In the Aksu, Kaidu, Shule and Heihe Rivers, the influence percentage of human activity on runoff is 90.4, 55.7, 63.1 and 78.8∈%, respectively. (3) It was discovered that runoff in the Aksu and Yarkand Rivers is increasing with rising precipitation and temperature levels, and that runoff in the Hotan River is likewise increasing, but the rate of increase there is minimal. As runoff's response to temperature is more sensitive to precipitation changes, runoff in the Aksu and Yarkand Rivers will increase 1.4-7.0∈% with every 1∈°C rise in temperature.