A prediction model for in-hospital mortality in intensive care unit patients with metastatic cancer

Abstract

Aim: To identify predictors for in-hospital mortality in patients with metastatic cancer in intensive care units (ICUs) and established a prediction model for in-hospital mortality in those patients. Methods: In this cohort study, the data of 2,462 patients with metastatic cancer in ICUs were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis was applied to identify the predictors for in-hospital mortality in metastatic cancer patients. Participants were randomly divided into the training set (n = 1,723) and the testing set (n = 739). Patients with metastatic cancer in ICUs from MIMIC-IV were used as the validation set (n = 1,726). The prediction model was constructed in the training set. The area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were employed for measuring the predictive performance of the model. The predictive performance of the model was validated in the testing set and external validation was performed in the validation set. Results: In total, 656 (26.65%) metastatic cancer patients were dead in hospital. Age, respiratory failure, the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) score, glucose, red cell distribution width (RDW) and lactate were predictors for the in-hospital mortality in patients with metastatic cancer in ICUs. The equation of the prediction model was ln(P/(1 + P)) = −5.9830 + 0.0174 × age + 1.3686 × respiratory failure + 0.0537 × SAPS II + 0.0312 × SOFA + 0.1278 × lactate − 0.0026 × glucose + 0.0772 × RDW. The AUCs of the prediction model was 0.797 (95% CI,0.776–0.825) in the training set, 0.778 (95% CI, 0.740–0.817) in the testing set and 0.811 (95% CI, 0.789–0.833) in the validation set. The predictive values of the model in lymphoma, myeloma, brain/spinal cord, lung, liver, peritoneum/pleura, enteroncus and other cancer populations were also assessed. Conclusion: The prediction model for in-hospital mortality in ICU patients with metastatic cancer exhibited good predictive ability, which might help identify patients with high risk of in-hospital death and provide timely interventions to those patients.