Implications of the Paris agreement in the context of long-term climate mitigation goals

Abstract

The Paris Agreement confirmed the global aim to achieve a long-term climate goal, in which the global increase in mean temperature is kept below 2 °C compared to the preindustrial level. We investigated the implications of the nearterm emissions targets (for around the year 2030) in the context of the long-term climate mitigation goal using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) framework. To achieve the 2 °C goal, a large greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction is required, either in the early or latter half of this century. In the midterm (from 2030 to 2050), it may be necessary to consider rapid changes to the existing energy or socioeconomic systems, while long-term measures (after 2050) will rely on the substantial use of biomass combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology or afforestation, which will eventually realize so-called negative CO2 emissions. With respect to the policy context, two suggestions are provided here. The first is the review and revision of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in 2020, with an additional reduction target to the current NDCs being one workable alternative. The second suggestion is a concrete and numerical midterm emissions reduction target, for example, to be met by 2040 or 2050, which could also help to achieve the long-term climate goal.