Analysis of baseline and alternative air quality scenarios for Pakistan: an integrated approach

Abstract

This study aims to assess the current and future air pollution and associated health impacts in Pakistan. In this study, the Pakistan Integrated Energy Model (Pak-IEM) is used to assess current and future energy consumption in Pakistan. To assess air pollution levels and associated health impacts, we used the Greenhouse gas and Air pollution INteractions and Synergies (GAINS) model. A linkage has been established between both the models to feed the energy outputs from Pak-IEM into GAINS for exploring different scenarios. Mainly, the emissions of three air pollutants (SO2, NOx, and PM2.5) as well as the associated health impacts of increased emissions are assessed. Baseline emission scenario (BES) shows a growth in emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 by a factor of 2.4, 2.2, and 2.5 between 2007 and 2030. In terms of health impacts, by 2030, annual mean concentrations of fine particles (PM2.5) would increase to more than 150 μg/m3 in some parts of Punjab region of Pakistan, for which loss in statistical life expectancy is calculated to increase from 30 to 60 months in 2007 up to 60–100 months in 2030 on average.