Assessment of Climate-Induced Impacts on Habitats

Abstract

Climate change impacts biota from individual level to whole habitats. Changing regional climate conditions let individuals be more prone to catastrophic disturbances (e.g. disease, insects, or fires). Climate change exposures and the sensitivity of species and habitats against these exposures can be used to assess the potential impacts on habitats. The exposure was evaluated in terms of “magnitude of changes” by comparing climatic conditions from the past to the future during the vegetation periods. The sensitivity included the ecological envelope of the habitat by assessing indicator values based on the species composition, and the regional expert-knowledge evaluated different criteria ranging from regeneration or distribution to invasive species. If-then rules combined the exposure magnitudes with the sensitivity categories to potential impacts. Results are presented for the Alpine, Continental and Pannonian biogeographical region. Freshwater habitats, raised bogs and mires and fens, as well as forest are most sensitive, whereas the very specialised azonal rocky habitats show the lowest sensitivity. Highest impacts can be expected in the dormant season of the vegetation period. Utilising categories and rules for the assessment of impacts instead of modelling approaches has the advantage of a simple framework transferrable to other biogeographical regions.