Uncertain Population Dynamics and HIV/AIDS in China

Abstract

It is well known that China accounts for one-fifth of the population of the world, making China’s population trends directly relevant for global population dynamics. In this context, it is surprising how much uncertainty exists about current demographic conditions in the world’s largest country. Recently published estimates of China’s total fertility rate for around the year 2000 range from 1.22 (NSB, 2002a,b) to 2.3 (Liang, 2003) – a discrepancy of 1.1 children per woman. There are more than 30 estimates of the fertility levels. Though most cholars and organizations consistently agree that fertility in China is below the replacement level, there are also scholars who believe that fertility in China falls below the lowest levels, and is at a par with fertility in some of the southern European countries (see Ren, 2005; Zhang and Zhao, 2006).