Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models

Abstract

China’s primary energy consumption increased from 1.46 btce (billion tons of coal equivalent) in 2000 to 3.25 btce in 2010, greatly influenced by energy service demand growth. For example, crude steel production rose from 152 to 637 million tons, urban per capita floor space from 10 to 21.5 square meters, passenger transport turnover from 1226 to 2789 billion passenger km (pkm), and freight transport turnover from 443 to 14,184 billion tons km (tkm). This trend in energy service demand will be a critical factor in the level of energy consumption and carbon emissions in the future. In this chapter, multiple approaches, including the stock-based model, the saturation model, the discrete choices model, and so on, are used to project energy service demands from different demand sectors. The projections of energy service demand are used as inputs in the China TIMES-ED model to generate a reference scenario. Several carbon constraint scenarios have been designed to analyze the role of energy service demand reductions in industry, building and transport in the mitigation of carbon emissions in China.