A Project Monitoring and Control System Using EVM and Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

Earned Value Management (EVM) tells the project manager whether the project has overruns (costs, delays) or it is running better than planned. But taking into account uncertainty, the methodology does not specify whether the deviation from planned values is within the possible deviations derived from the expected variability of the project. In this paper, a different approach is proposed for monitoring and control projects under uncertainty. The Monte Carlo simulation is used to obtain the “universe” of possible project runs and new and innovative graphs are defined. When the project is running, its current situation can be represented with these graphs, so that it can be established whether the cost or duration of a project is under control at a given time for a given level of confidence.