Origin of the 2016 QBO Disruption and Its Relationship to Extreme El Niño Events

Abstract

The descent of the westerly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in equatorial stratospheric zonal wind was interrupted by the development of easterlies near 40 hPa (~23 km altitude) in early 2016. We use tropical meteorological analyses of wind and temperature to describe in detail the special circumstances by which equatorward-propagating planetary waves produced this unprecedented disruption in the QBO. Our findings show that the subtropical easterly jet in the winter lower stratosphere during the 2015–2016 winter was anomalously weak owing to (1) the timing of the QBO relative to the annual cycle and (2) an extreme El Niño event. The weak jet allowed an unusually large flux of westward momentum to propagate from the extratropical Northern Hemisphere to the equator near the 40 hPa level. Consequently, the QBO westerlies at that level experienced sustained easterly acceleration from extratropical wave breaking, leading to the observed wind reversal.