Can outcome of pancreatic pseudocysts be predicted? Proposal for a new scoring system

Abstract

© 2016 TJTES. BACKGROUND: The spontaneous resolution rate of pancreatic pseudocysts (PPs) is 86%, and the serious complication rate is 3-9%. The aim of the present study was to develop a scoring system that would predict spontaneous resolution of PPs. METHODS: Medical records of 70 patients were retrospectively reviewed. Two patients were excluded. Demographic data and laboratory measurements were obtained from patient records. RESULTS: Mean age of the 68 patients included was 56.6 years. Female:male ratio was 1.34:1. Causes of pancreatitis were stones (48.5%), alcohol consumption (26.5%), and unknown etiology (25%). Mean size of PP was 71 mm. Pseudocysts disappeared in 32 patients (47.1%). With univariate analysis, serum direct bilirubin level (>0.95 mg/dL), cyst carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level (>1.5), and cyst diameter (>55 mm) were found to be significantly different between patients with and without spontaneous resolution. In multivariate analysis, these variables were statistically significant. Scores were calculated with points assigned to each variable. Final scores predicted spontaneous resolution in approximately 80% of patients. CONCLUSION: The scoring system developed to predict resolution of PPs is simple and useful, but requires validation.