Effect of global climate change on the distribution of Anchomenus dorsalis (Coleoptera, Carabidae) in Europe

Abstract

Shifts in a bioclimatic range of Anchomenus dorsalis specialized entomophage were modeled in the MaxEntsoftware package and are presented on habitat maps. We used two climatic scenarios for the prediction mild (RCP2.6) and extreme (RCP8.5). Under the considered scenarios, further warming would lead to a shift and extension of the range to the north, northeast, and east and a decrease in the number of populations in the southern regions of Europe. The essential bioclimatic indicators which describe the geographical distribution of A. dorsalis are the mean annual air temperature, mean daily amplitude of temperature for each month, the overall amount of precipitation in the coldest quarter of the year, minimum temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the warmest quarter of the year, and the annual amount of precipitation. Global warming causes the bioclimatic range of A. dorsalis to shift northeast and east in intracontinental territories and west and northwest on islands. Poikilothermic animals may suffer from overheating, and even if they live far in the northern hemisphere, the ability of their organisms to withstand an increase in environmental temperature is limited. Mild winters (with higher temperatures) may increase the mortality of A. dorsalis by exhausting their energy reserves. This ground beetle species is an important object in monitoring the condition of natural and agrarian ecosystems, sensitive to the growing global climate changes.