An Integrated Approach for Prediction of Hazardous Dynamic Events (Case Study of Retrospective Data in the Area of a Tectonic Rockburst in the Rasvumchorr Mine on January 9, 2018)

Abstract

The study discusses the results of multifactor analysis of a large 3.3 magnitude seismic event which occurred on January 9, 2018 (6:00 AM MSK) in the Rasvumchorr mine (the Apatitovy Tsirk deposit). The event’s hypocenter was in the footwall of the ore body outside the mining zone. The event was accompanied by a strong noise, underground and surface shaking and severe damage to mine excavations, and was felt both by mine personnel and residents of Kirovsk and Apatity towns. Destructions in mine excavations were detected within the elevations up to 100 m. Events of such rank occur at the Khibiny rockburst hazardous deposits at intervals of 5–10 and more years. This large dynamic event could be triggered by a technologic blast on January 8, 2018, when the rock mass went into an extremely unstable state. Here, an integrated approach for prediction of hazardous dynamic events is invoked for retrospective data. The proposed approach is based on combining probabilistic assessments for seismically dangerous zones and 3D numerical modeling of the rock mass stress-strain state. It also takes into account main geological, geomechanical and mining-engineering factors at several large-scale levels. It is shown that the combined use of various indicators of seismic hazard and parameters of the stress-strain state of a particular site during development of mining operations makes it possible to increase reliability of seismic predictions in hazardous zones.