Simulation and analysis of temporal changes of groundwater depth using time series modeling

Abstract

In the world’s water scarce regions, groundwater as an important and strategic resource needs proper assessment. An accurate forecasting needs to be performed in order to make a better identification of fluctuating nature of groundwater levels. In this study, groundwater level fluctuations of Kabudarahang aquifer was synchronized and verified. Investigation was conducted with usage and application of time series models. Groundwater level data during 2003–2014 are used for calibration and analyses were performed using Box-Jenkins models. Residual error analysis and comparison of observed and calculated groundwater levels were performed. Then a prediction model for groundwater level in Kabudarahang aquifer developed. The model was used for predicting the groundwater level during 2014–2017. Model results showed that the groundwater level in this aquifer will endure a 5 m decline for the next three upcoming years.