A summary of turbulence forecasting techniques used by the national weather service

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Abstract

A summary of turbulence forecasting by the US National Weather Service (NWS) is provided. This chapter begins with a historical perspective, beginning with the Wright brothers and ending with NextGen. Following the historical perspective, present-day aviation-based meteorological operations are described. This discussion covers the services provided by the NWS and its partners and includes a foundational summary of present-day (2015) forecasting techniques. This chapter closes with a narrative on current and future prediction, built around numerical models and ensemble systems. These systems will drive intelligent information extraction and decision support services provided by operational meteorologists, leading to a safer and weather-ready airspace.

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Bright, D. R., Lack, S. A., & Sparks, J. A. (2016). A summary of turbulence forecasting techniques used by the national weather service. In Aviation Turbulence: Processes, Detection, Prediction (pp. 213–226). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-23630-8_10

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