Urbanization and COVID-19 incidence: A cross-country investigation

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of the diffusion and intensity of the COVID-19 at the country level, focusing on the role played by urban agglomeration, measured using three urban variables: percentage of the urban population, population density, and primacy. We estimate the influence of urban agglomeration on two outcome variables: cumulative number of cases and deaths per 100,000 inhabitants up to 31 December 2020, using both parametric and semiparametric models. We also explore possible spatial effects. The non-linear effects of the urban variables on the intensity of the disease reveal non-monotonous relationships, suggesting that it is the size of the urban system that is linked to a stronger incidence.