Dynamics of agent organizations: Application to modeling irregular warfare

Abstract

In this paper, we focus on computational modeling of adversarial activities and asymmetric warfare in a tactical setting. As a topic for simulation study, asymmetric warfare is an odd and ill-conditioned problem. Empirical data is scarce or one-sided, while the subject itself presents a constantly adapting and moving target that makes it a strategic priority to conceal its inner workings from the observers. To provide an insight into the dynamics of the asymmetric conflicts, one needs to constrain the model in rigorous social-scientific concepts, including those of organization theory, theory of collective action, and analysis. Our model, called NetMason, enables controlled experiments to replicate and analyze alternative policies of disruption of activities of terrorist organizations. In addition, sensitivity analysis with respect to behavioral assumptions can be easily performed.