Daniel Bernoulli, d’Alembert and the inoculation of smallpox (1760)

Abstract

In 1760 Daniel Bernoulli wrote an article modeling smallpox. In his time there was much controversy around inoculation, a practice that could protect people but could also be deadly. He used Halley’s life table and some data concerning smallpox to show that inoculation was advantageous if the associated risk of dying was less than 11%. Inoculation could increase life expectancy at birth up to three years. D’Alembert criticized Bernoulli’s work, which was the first mathematical model in epidemiology.