Impact analysis

Abstract

Impact analysis is the assessment in terms of monetary loss of any potential threat to the organization. Impact analysis combines the Bayesian decision process with the Delphi method, as modified herein. A computer can be used to produce a statistical summary useful in forecasting. This paper will describe impact analysis. First, brief summaries of the Bayesian decision process and the Delphi technique are offered. Then, the method for impact analysis is outlined, followed by a description of a recent application. The application was developed at the Weyerhaeuser Company, Tacoma, Washington. Weyerhaeuser is one of the largest forest products companies in the world. The paper concludes with suggestions for other applications. It should be noted that the term "threat analysis" was originally used as the name for this method. However, the term threat analysis has been widely used in connection with a variety of other techniques partially or totally unrelated to what is presented herein. To avoid confusion, the authors have adopted the term impact analysis in an attempt to uniquely label this method.