Perceived pollution and selective out-migration: revisiting the role of income for environmental inequality

Abstract

The disproportionate exposure of minorities and socio-economically disadvantaged households to environmental pollution is often explained by selective migration or sorting mechanisms. Yet, previous empirical results remain inconclusive. Here, we offer an explanation for the mixed findings by focusing on the selective out-migration stage triggered by environmental pollution. We argue that many income-independent explanations for minority disadvantages predict sorting across destinations but are less predictive for the out-migration stage. We test if the subjective impairment through air pollution selectively affects the probability of out-migration according to income and minority status. We use household-level panel data of the German SOEP from 1986 to 2016 and within-household estimates of correlated random effects probit models. Findings show that perceived air pollution has a stronger effect on the likelihood of moving for households experiencing an increasing income. We also find differences between native German and first-generation immigrant households, but the differences become smaller and non-significant once we control for income. This is at odds with results from previous studies on the in-migration stage, where minorities are heavily disadvantaged but income plays a less important role. The decision to move from pollution seems to follow a different pattern than the determinants of the destination.