Impact of initial and boundary conditions on mesoscale simulation of bay of Bengal cyclones using WRF-ARW model

Abstract

Land falling tropical cyclones (TCs) that form over the BOB cause disaster along the east coast of India, Bangladesh and Myanmar. The destruction is mainly due to the strong wind, heavy rainfall and associated storm surges. It causes huge damage to property. So, it is very important to predict the TCs as accurately as possible to reduce the loss of life and damage to the property. The track and intensity predictions of the tropical cyclone remain a challenging task for atmospheric scientists and operational forecasters. Several studies suggested that incomplete representation of physical processes, insufficient model spatial resolution (Demaria and Kaplan 1999; Zhang et al. 2011) and inaccurate IBCs are possible reasons for poor forecast of the tropical cyclones (Cacciamani et al. 2000).