Surface Temperature Pattern Scenarios Suggest Higher Warming Rates Than Current Projections

Abstract

Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) struggle to reproduce recently observed sea surface temperature (SST) trend patterns. Here, we quantify the relevance of this SST pattern uncertainty to global-mean temperature projections through convolving Green's functions with SST pattern scenarios that differ from the ones AOGCMs produce by themselves. We find that future SST pattern uncertainty has a significant impact on projections, such as increasing total model uncertainty by 40% in a high-emissions scenario by 2085. A reversal of the current cooling trend in the East Pacific over the next few decades could lead to a period of global-mean warming with a 60% higher rate than currently projected. SST pattern uncertainty works through a destabilization of the shortwave cloud feedback to affect temperature projections. It is critical for climate change impact, adaptation, and mitigation assessments to incorporate this previously unaccounted for uncertainty until we trust the evolution of SST patterns in AOGCMs.