Evaluation and prediction of ozone depletion

Abstract

As is known to all,the ozone hole has brought a series of adverse effects.Therefor, it is of great significance to evaluate and predict ozone depletion in the future for the purpose of healthy development of human society.Firstly,DPSIR model is utilized to establish the evaluation system of ozone depletion.Taking the primary influence factors into account,16 indicators constituting index layer are selected to represent the ozone depletion situation. Analytic Hierarchy Process is adopted to definite the weight of index.Calculation reveals that the ozone hole areas have a tendency of rising first and then descending.Lastly,Extreme Learning Machine model is used for predicting the ozone levels.The result of 50-year forecast shows that ozone level is under the circumstance of safer state and ozone layer will get a great deal of recovery.