Electricity peak demand in Uganda: insights and foresight

Abstract

Background: Availability of reliable energy supply plays a critical role in the social, economic, and cultural transformation of society. The Uganda electricity sector has suffered long standing supply side constraints that resulted in suppressed demand and outages. Recent developments, including the completion of the 250 MW Bujagali project in 2012, have resulted in sustained growth in peak demand. However, this growth in peak demand appeared to stagnate by 2013. This study examines the recent trends as well as forecast the medium term path of electricity peak demand in Uganda. Methods: This study uses descriptive data exploration analysis and polynomial functions augmented by empirical estimations of structural break equations to account for the observed trends in electricity peak demand. The study applies the double exponential forecasting model to forecast total peak electricity demand. Results: The results show that the recent surge in electricity peak demand is due to increased electricity exports. Moreover, the results show a shift in electricity demand from peak to nonpeak time-of-use, possibly due to changing consumption patterns in the industrial sectors. Conclusions: The study draws two major conclusions. First, the growth in Uganda’s electricity demand in general and peak demand in particular has not stagnated as such but rather partially shifted from peak to nonpeak time-of-use zone. Second, electricity exports have contributed to growth of electricity peak demand. Importantly, higher electricity exports need to be considered in line with the system capacity given the current electricity spinning reserves of Uganda are less than 15 % of Uganda current installed capacity.