Against All Odds: Multicriteria Decision Making with Hazard Prediction Maps Depicting Uncertainty

Abstract

We report on a multicriteria decision-making study where participants were asked to purchase a house shown on maps that include hazard prediction information. We find that participants decided to buy different houses, depending on whether uncertainty is shown on the map display and on the type of uncertainty visualization (i.e., varying color value, focus, or texture). We also find that participants’ individual differences with respect to their assessed risk-taking behavior influences their spatial decision making with maps. Risk-takers seem to underestimate the dangers of natural hazards when prediction uncertainties are depicted. We are thus able to shed additional light on how people use visualized uncertainty information to make complex map-based decisions. We can demonstrate that not only are design characteristics relevant for map-based reasoning and decision-making outcomes but so are the decision makers’ individual background and the map-based decision-making context. Key Words: experiment, risk maps, risk perception, uncertainty, visualization.