Proposal to reduce natural risks: Analytic network process to evaluate efficiency of city planning strategies

Abstract

Natural hazards have greater social and economic impact in urban areas because urbanization and economic development increase people and assets’ concentration in high-risk prone areas: hazards generate risks in relation to population’s exposure and its physical and economic assets. Advanced urban planning is one of the involved disciplines in the process of human exposure and risks reduction: defining strategic actions, it can reduce losses following natural disasters and, in the same time, ensure a flexible design able to absorb external impacts, to transform and to adapt itself, increasing urban resilience. The paper defines two possible strategies of intervention in city as risk mitigation methods: Areal Change and Functional Change. Authors describe the use of scenario planning and Multicriteria evaluation (ANP method) to deepen suitable strategies at urban level. Moreover, authors introduce the first instruments useful for the future application of the presented method: ideal city modeling and evaluation criteria definition.