Prey selection among Los Angeles car thieves

Abstract

More than 63,000 cars were reported stolen in Los Angeles in 2003-04. However, the distribution of thefts across car types is very uneven. Some cars types such as the Honda Civic were stolen at much higher frequencies than the majority of car types. Charnov's classic prey selection model suggests that such uneven targeting should be related to variations in the environmental abundance, expected payoffs, and handling costs associated with different car types. Street-based surveys in Los Angeles suggest that differences in abundance explain the majority of thefts. Cars stolen despite being rare may reflect offender preference based on differential payoffs, probably in some non-monetary currency such as prestige or excitement. Differential handling costs play a more ambiguous role in target selection, but may underlie thieves' decisions to ignore some cars common in the environment. The unspecialized nature of car theft in Los Angeles suggests that the behavioral and cognitive capacities needed to be a successful car thief are generic. The evolved capacity to solve foraging problems in boundedly-rational ways, mixed with small amounts of trial-and-error and/or social learning, are sufficient to produce experts from inexperienced thieves.