Urban climate and dengue epidemics in Brazil

Abstract

Dengue is currently one of the most serious worldwide public health problems. It is considered an neglected urban tropical disease by the World Health Organization, and Latin America has the ideal environment conditions for the proliferation of the Aedes mosquito (Aedes aegypti and albopictus), vector of the disease. Moreover, the urbanization, lifestyle, and ineffectiveness of public health policies have resulted in severe epidemics. This research focuses on analyzing the influence of the urban climate and the proliferation of dengue in three different cities in Brazil: Campo Grande, Maringá, and Ribeirão Preto, correlating climatic variables with the incidence of the disease through the use of GIS and modeling tools to understand the dynamics of the urban climate. The analysis of daily temperature showed significant correlation (R = 0.70 and P > 0.99) with the records of the disease and a delay of 7 days, just as there is a good correlation between the end of the rainy season and the epidemic peak. The results show the complexity of the disease, in a close relationship among the environment, the circulation of different serotypes, solid waste disposal, rubble, and abandoned pools, which puts its own population at risk and vulnerable to disease. An important point is that, even in different cities, the epidemic followed a similar pattern, emphasizing the importance of climate variables in an epidemiological understanding of this process. From the results, it is expected that study helps local health agencies in implementing appropriate early warning systems from monitoring and preventive control of environmental conditions.