Near-global-scale high-resolution seasonal simulations with WRF-Noah-MP v.3.8.1

Abstract

The added value of global simulations on the convection-permitting (CP) scale is a subject of extensive research in the earth system science community. An increase in predictive skill can be expected due to advanced representations of feedbacks and teleconnections in the ocean-land-atmosphere system. However, the proof of this hypothesis by corresponding simulations is computationally and scientifically extremely demanding. We present a novel latitudebelt simulation from 57° S to 65° N using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Noah-MP model system with a grid increment of 0.03° over a period of 5 months forced by sea surface temperature observations. In comparison to a latitude-belt simulation with 45 km resolution, at CP resolution the representation of the spatial-temporal scales and the organization of tropical convection are improved considerably. The teleconnection pattern is very close to that of the operational European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) analyses. The CP simulation is associated with an improvement of the precipitation forecast over South America, Africa, and the Indian Ocean and considerably improves the representation of cloud coverage along the tropics. Our results demonstrate a significant added value of future simulations on the CP scale up to the seasonal forecast range.