The Dogs of the Dow Theory – Is It Valid?

Abstract

The Dogs of the Dow theory has been a popular tool in the financial market. But while the theory is simple, there have been mixed findings on its validity. Using U.S. data from 2000 through 2017, this paper identifies how consistently an investment strategy that follows the Dogs of the Dow theory outperforms the average market. The results show that the theory has not worked well in the recent U.S. market when trading costs and taxes are included. Rather, holding an equally weighted investment of all firms is more likely to outperform the Dow Jones Industrial Average index and the Dogs of the Dow strategy in the long term.