Size, longevity and cancer: Age structure

Abstract

There is significant recent interest in Peto’s paradox and the related problem of the evolution of large, long-lived organisms in terms of cancer robustness. Peto’s paradox refers to the expectation that large, long-lived organisms have a higher lifetime cancer risk, which is not the case: a paradox. This paradox, however, is circular: large, long-lived organisms are large and long-lived because they are cancer robust. Lifetime risk, meanwhile, depends on the age distributions of both cancer and competing risks: if cancer strikes before competing risks, then lifetime risk is high; if not, not. Because no set of competing risks is generally prevalent, it is instructive to temporarily dispose of competing risks and investigate the pure age dynamics of cancer under the multistage model of carcinogenesis. In addition to augmenting earlier results, I show that in terms of cancer-free lifespan large organisms reap greater benefits from an increase in cellular cancer robustness than smaller organisms. Conversely, a higher cellular cancer robustness renders cancer-free lifespan more resilient to an increase in size. This interaction may be an important driver of the evolution of large, cancer-robust organisms.